Dear Valued Partner and Stakeholders,

It is our pleasure to provide our first quarterly update of 2025: one that has brought both cautious optimism and understandable concern for the U.S.-Africa trade relationship.

The US-Africa Trade Desk has experienced unprecedented commercial success as this new landscape takes shape. Recognizing the need to navigate these recent changes, we want to take a moment to focus on the headlines from coming out of Washington, D.C. – and how we are meeting this moment.

Since its inception, USATD has been aligned with U.S. government policy to ensure our deals are best positioned for lasting success. Previously achieved through our partnership with Prosper Africa, we remain committed to our continued engagement and alignment with U.S. trade policy while decisions on Prosper Africa and other mechanisms remain to be determined. To support this engagement, we are pleased to report that we have brought on several new team members with decades of combined experience at the U.S. Departments of State and Commerce to interpret, navigate, and implement new policies as they emerge. Our new team is already working to assist clients and set expectations for the year ahead.

USATD is and always has been a commercial enterprise. As the world balances new trade strategies and ever-shifting tariff landscapes, we are proud to be your partner through these changes, and our (virtual) doors are always open. Given our position, our alignment with government policies, our unique expertise, and our partnerships, we truly believe that we are prepared to make 2025 our best year yet.

Gavin

U.S.- Africa Trade Policy Expectations for 2025 and Beyond

Under the second Trump administration, the U.S. is resetting its geopolitical relationships to underscore “America First” priorities. This shift includes increased diversification of commercial partners: With a “blank slate” opportunity, we see African states, particularly those offering balanced trade deals, making tangible market reforms, and visibly aligning to American priorities, find an opportunity to redefine successful partnerships with the United States.

We know this administration has already taken a few clear actions towards its African partners – doing so earlier than prior administrations and hinting at a “country-by-country” approach for bilateral engagement instead of simply looking at Africa as one coherent bloc. Among these early examples include an appointment of a Special Envoy to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with the President’s daughter’s father-in-law charged with accelerating the U.S.-DRC relationship and signaling a greenlight for possible commercial expansion.

Still in the early days of appointing leadership and setting agendas, we know it may be difficult to identify which countries will join the DRC as obvious first movers. We expect those decisions will follow the first Trump administration’s priorities for partnerships, namely the countries that offer transactional, commercial opportunities and share security priorities. For example, during his first term, President Trump started free trade agreement talks with Kenya and partnered with Morocco as component to the groundbreaking Abraham Accords. In the second Trump term, we can envision countries like the Zambia and Angola as early potential partners, considering their role in a successful Lobito corridor development following country-specific economic reforms. Botswana similarly presents minerals, agriculture, and energy opportunities to diversify supply chains, while countries like Kenya and Ghana remain reliable commercial destinations. We think there will be opportunities for smaller countries like Mauritius, Madagascar, or Senegal, which can avail themselves of this new trade policy landscape by strengthening market reforms, focusing on meeting specific U.S. needs, and taking specific steps to pivot away from American adversaries. Of course, we can understand that the administration is also unlikely to support those countries deepening alignment to Chinese interests, eschewing the U.S. dollar, condemning U.S. priorities (e.g., Israel), and suffering from governance instability and closed markets.

Any African country working with the U.S. is likely to benefit from this administration’s aim to build on its accomplishments from the first term, including taking immediate executive action to enable the U.S. Export-Import Bank’s (EXIM) activities and its commitment to the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), in naming Ben Black as the new CEO. The DFC’s nominated leadership is regarded as a positive, aggressive “builder,” suggesting the DFC will remain active. Even with tariffs looming as a possibility for any country in the world, the administration has demonstrated a willingness to work with individual countries to provide a space for negotiation. Furthermore, we understand this administration expects every activity to demonstrate a return on investment to the American taxpayer, something of which all parties must be mindful when seeking U.S. government partnership.

Again, the Trump White House’s approach to Africa is only beginning to take shape. Nominations for key roles for defining U.S.-Africa engagement have yet to be named or await confirmation. Trade plans and other guidance are still to be determined, plus the administration has not taken a clear position on AGOA or other incentive programs.

Only 60 days into this administration, we remind our partners that much remains to be determined. While the recent activity implies an emphasis on increased bilateral engagement, fewer concessional agreements, and prioritization of U.S. needs in the U.S.-Africa trade relationship, stakeholders still await more concrete actions to understand and react to the direction of the administration toward the African countries.

For any queries, please reach out to us via queries@usatd.org